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The researchers I spoke to say the ruling, in isolation, is probably not going to make air pollution significantly worse. The EPA will still be able to regulate emissions from power plants, vehicles, and infrastructure. “My biggest worry was they were going to use this case to fundamentally challenge the authority of EPA to regulate greenhouse gases,” said Wei Peng, an air pollution researcher at Penn State, and that didn’t happen.

Electricity-related air pollution from fossil fuel sources still leads to 10,000 to 20,000 deaths per year, said Peng, even though almost all sulfur oxides and most nitrogen oxides have been eliminated through technologies like scrubbers and low nitrogen oxide burners. To get rid of the last pollutants in the electricity sector, she said, “we need to eliminate fossil fuel combustion from the electricity sector … the last mile problem is all about fuel switching.”

But this important move away from coal and gas wouldn’t have necessarily happened through the EPA. The increasingly cheap cost of renewable energy incentivizes companies to switch to wind and solar power even without regulation, and they can be further incentivized through clean energy tax credits. What was strange to Greenstone, at EPIC, is that the ruling took away the opportunity for the EPA to implement a cost-effective policy (cap and trade), while still allowing regulation, which he sees as effectively amounting to ruling “in favor of more expensive climate regulation.”

The Supreme Court, in West Virginia v. EPA, used the “major questions” doctrine to require impactful regulatory strategies to be explicitly approved by Congress, which sets a precedent that could prevent future environmental regulation by government agencies. So while the West Virginia ruling in itself probably won’t make air pollution significantly worse, there are further challenges to environmental laws that also have implications for pollution, and West Virginia v. EPA may make such challenges and limits on regulation more common. Movement away from coal, for example, is chiefly about greenhouse gases, said Peng, but coal is also a major source of conventional air pollution, so anything that curtails the ability of the EPA to drive that transition faster likely will have impacts on air pollution, too.

While federal and state legislators can still take action on climate change — Congress could even still authorize the EPA to do cap and trade — the hard reality is that Congress hasn’t been able to act to address climate change, and shows virtually no sign of being able to do so in the future, given polarization over the environment. That wasn’t always the case: The original Clean Air Act and its important amendments were passed by huge bipartisan majorities, and at least some — including the 1990 amendments — were passed under GOP presidents. Cap and trade itself is a market-based approach supported by Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush. But since climate action has now chiefly become a Democratic issue, any legislation around environmental concerns will struggle to pass.

The Clean Air Act drastically reduced conventional air pollution, saving hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars. But it’s also a relic of a time when caring about the environment — and its effects on human health — didn’t break down along party lines. As a conservative Supreme Court pares back the powers of the regulatory apparatus, hopes for future progress will fall back onto Congress — and that’s not much hope at all.

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